Short answer
Iran's constitution gives the 88-member Assembly of Experts, an elected clerical body, the power to appoint and dismiss the supreme leader. It named Mojtaba Khamenei after his father was killed in February 2026. On October 24, 2026, Polymarket's 'Yes' contract on him holding de facto power at noon ET on December 31 traded at 85¢, and its leadership-change contract at 14.5¢. These are trader prices, not forecasts.
- What happened Ali Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026. A three-member interim council ruled until the Assembly of Experts named his son Mojtaba Khamenei the third leader, announced March 8.
- Why it matters The Leader commands the armed forces and sets the state's general policies. The President ranks below him under Article 113.
- What is priced On October 24, 2026, Polymarket's Mojtaba Khamenei contract traded at 85¢ and the leadership-change contract at 14.5¢. These are trader bets, not forecasts.
- What to watch The head-of-state market settles on who holds de facto power at 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Officials say Khamenei is healthy, but there has been no independently verified public appearance since he was named leader.
Last checked
Key facts
| Ali Khamenei killed | February 28, 2026, after almost 37 years in office |
| Interim council | March 1 to March 8, 2026: Pezeshkian, Mohseni-Ejei, Arafi |
| Successor announced | March 8, 2026 (Assembly statement): Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, by 'decisive vote' |
| Assembly of Experts | 88 seats, eight-year terms, last elected March 1, 2024 |
| Polymarket: Khamenei holds power end-2026 | 85¢ on $6.90M volume (October 24, 2026) |
| Polymarket: leadership change by Dec 31 | 14.5¢ on $5.48M volume (October 24, 2026) |
What happened to Iran's leadership in 2026?
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026. He had held the post for almost 37 years, according to Al Jazeera.
Iran then formed a three-member interim council under Article 111 of its constitution. Al Jazeera reported that the council was made up of President Masoud Pezeshkian, Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi. It ran from March 1 to March 8.
The Assembly of Experts then announced that Mojtaba Khamenei had been chosen as the Islamic Republic's third leader by a 'decisive vote', according to Iran International, which quoted the Assembly's statement. The Assembly's statement is dated March 8. bne IntelliNews reported the selection on March 9. No vote count was released.
Mojtaba Khamenei is 56 and is Ali Khamenei's second-eldest son. bne IntelliNews reported that he is believed to have close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). It also noted that his selection is controversial because the 1979 revolution rejected hereditary rule.
- February 28, 2026: Ali Khamenei killed
- March 1, 2026: interim council takes over under Article 111
- March 8, 2026: Assembly of Experts announces Mojtaba Khamenei as third leader
How does Iran's constitution choose and remove a supreme leader?
Article 107 gives the job of appointing the Leader to 'the experts elected by the people'. That body is the Assembly of Experts. The constitution uses the word 'appoint'. Media reports often call it an election, but voters only choose the Assembly members, not the Leader. The same article says the Leader is equal to everyone else before the law.
Article 111 sets out removal. The Leader is to be dismissed if he becomes unable to carry out his duties, or if he loses, or never had, the qualifications listed in Articles 5 and 109. That decision belongs to the Assembly of Experts. The same article covers the gap after a death, resignation or dismissal: a council of the President, the head of the judiciary and a Guardian Council jurist chosen by the Expediency Council carries out the Leader's duties until a successor is named. Iran used this arrangement in early March.
The design has a loop. The Middle East Institute notes that the Guardian Council, whose jurists are appointed by the Leader, vetted candidates for the Assembly of Experts. Before the March 1, 2024 election, 366 of 510 registrants were reportedly disqualified, leaving 144. So the body that picks and can dismiss the Leader was screened by people the previous Leader appointed.
- Art. 107: the Assembly of Experts appoints the Leader
- Art. 111: the Assembly can dismiss him; an interim council fills any gap
- Art. 110: the Leader commands the armed forces and sets general policies
- Art. 113: the President is the highest official after the Leader
Why does the supreme leader matter more than the president?
Article 110 makes the Leader supreme commander of the armed forces and gives him power to set the state's general policies. Article 113 says that after the office of Leadership, the President is the highest official in the country. The President runs the executive, but not in matters reserved for the Leader.
The power runs one way. Under Article 110, the Leader can remove the President if the Supreme Court finds him in violation of his constitutional duties, or after parliament votes that he is incompetent. The President has no matching power over the Leader. Only the Assembly of Experts does.
Under Article 110, command of the armed forces and the state's general policies sit with the Leader. A change in who holds that office, or who acts in his name, would matter more than a change of president.
What do prediction markets price for Iran's leader?
Polymarket runs two linked markets. These figures come from Polymarket's public Gamma API on October 24, 2026, because the main Polymarket website returned an HTTP 451 error from our location. Prices move constantly and show what traders are paying, not a forecast by News Margin. Prediction-market access depends on local rules, so check whether it is legal where you live.
In the 'Iran leader end of 2026?' event, which has about $40.46M in total volume, the Mojtaba Khamenei 'Yes' contract traded at 85¢ on $6.90M of volume. The contract settles on whoever holds de facto power at 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026, whatever their formal title, constitutional role or international recognition.
A 'Yes' share bought at 85¢ pays $1 only if the outcome happens. It returns $1 if Mojtaba Khamenei holds de facto power at 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026, so the gain is the small gap between the price and the payout. If he does not, the buyer loses the full 85¢.
In the 'Iran leadership change by…?' event, with about $28.0M in volume, the December 31 contract traded at 14.5¢ on $5.48M of volume. This is a separate event with different resolution rules. It settles 'Yes' if Mojtaba Khamenei is removed, detained or otherwise prevented from acting as de facto leader. An official announcement of his resignation or removal also counts, even if it takes effect later. A 'Yes' share here also pays $1, but it can resolve earlier than December 31.
Read side by side, the two prices look like opposites, but they are not exact complements. One market takes a snapshot at noon on December 31. The other is triggered by any qualifying event before the deadline, including an announcement. Polymarket's 'head of state' also means de facto control, which is not the same as the constitutional title of Leader. Check each market's resolution rules before reading the prices together.
| Outcome | Price (Oct 24, 2026) | Contract volume |
|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 85¢ | $6.90M |
| No Head of State | 4.55¢ | Not given |
| Reza Pahlavi | 2.45¢ | Not given |
| Hassan Khomeini | 0.30¢ | Not given |
| Muhammad Mirbaqiri | 0.25¢ | Not given |
| Sadegh Larijani | 0.20¢ | Not given |
What is not confirmed about Mojtaba Khamenei?
His health and his public role are the largest open questions. On March 12, Euronews reported that no video, audio or recent images of him had been released, and that his first message was read out by a TV presenter. US Defense Secretary Hegseth claimed he was wounded and 'likely disfigured', but gave no evidence.
Iranian officials say he is well. On August 10, President Pezeshkian said Khamenei was in 'perfect health' after what he described as a seven-hour meeting, according to Al Jazeera. On October 22, Iranian outlets reported that he met Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf to review the war. Asharq Al-Awsat noted that no verified footage was released. On October 23, Iranian diplomat Abdul Majid Hakeem Ilahi said he was 'very, very, very healthy', LatestLY reported.
Who actually makes decisions is also unclear. Euronews cited reports that the IRGC and Ali Larijani have gained influence behind the scenes. That matters for the markets above, which settle on de facto power rather than title.
- The vote count: the Assembly said only "decisive vote"
- His physical condition: officials say he is healthy, and no independent footage has been released
- Who makes day-to-day decisions, given reports of IRGC and Ali Larijani influence
What should readers watch next?
The one fixed date in view is December 31, 2026. At 12:00 PM ET, Polymarket's head-of-state market settles on who holds de facto power in Iran. The leadership-change market for the same deadline can settle earlier if a qualifying event happens first.
Before then, two things would answer open questions directly: a verified public appearance by Mojtaba Khamenei, and any formal action by the Assembly of Experts under Article 111. Until either happens, statements about his health remain claims from officials, attributed to them.
FAQ
Who chooses Iran's supreme leader?
The Assembly of Experts, an 88-member body of clerics elected by voters, appoints the Leader under Article 107 of the constitution. Candidates for the Assembly are vetted by the Guardian Council.
Can Iran's supreme leader be removed?
Yes, on paper. Article 111 says the Assembly of Experts dismisses the Leader if he can no longer carry out his duties or lacks the required qualifications.
Who ran Iran after Ali Khamenei was killed?
A three-member interim council of President Masoud Pezeshkian, Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, from March 1 to March 8, 2026, according to Al Jazeera.
Is Mojtaba Khamenei healthy?
Iranian officials, including President Pezeshkian, say he is. There has been no independently verified public appearance since he was named leader, and a US claim that he was badly wounded came without evidence.
Why aren't the 85% and 14.5% market prices exact opposites?
They come from two markets with different rules. One checks who holds de facto power at noon ET on December 31; the other settles on any loss of power or official removal announcement before then.
Sources
- Constitution of Iran 1989 (Constitute Project)
- Al Jazeera – interim council
- Iran International – Assembly announcement
- bne IntelliNews
- Middle East Institute – Assembly of Experts
- Euronews
- Polymarket – Iran leader end of 2026 (API)
- Polymarket – Iran leadership change by (API)
Figures change. Check the primary sources below.